Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered a clean beat on headline metrics: revenue $525.99M vs consensus $518.41M*, GAAP EPS $0.35 vs $0.276*, and adj. EBITDA $70.4M vs $65.7M*, with gross margin expanding to 16.0% .
Backlog and recurring visibility strengthened further: total project backlog $5.14B, contracted backlog $2.47B, O&M revenue backlog $1.48B, total revenue visibility $10.17B .
Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance ranges (revenue $1.85–$1.95B, adj. EBITDA $225–$245M, gross margin 15.5–16.0%, non-GAAP EPS $0.70–$0.90) and highlighted robust demand from energy infrastructure, data centers, and industrial resiliency .
Near-term catalysts: expanding AI/data-center energy infrastructure opportunity (Lemoore with CyrusOne), major BESS project with Nucor now in operation (50MW/200MWh), plus continued European strength and backlog conversion—supporting faster EBITDA growth trajectory .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Broad-based growth with operating leverage: revenue +5% YoY to $525.99M, adj. EBITDA +13% to $70.4M, gross margin up to 16.0% .
- Strategic wins in firm power and storage: 50MW/200MWh BESS at Nucor reached commercial operations; pipeline building for data center energy infrastructure (Lemoore) .
- CEO tone confident on long-term visibility and model flexibility: “Adjusted EBITDA growth outpaced revenue growth… our unique ability to offer flexible financial options…” .
What Went Wrong
- “Other” revenue down YoY due to AEG divestiture; O&M adj. EBITDA lower YoY as mix shifted (O&M adj. EBITDA $2.628M vs $5.086M) .
- Interest expense elevated: Q3 interest expense and income, net $20.485M vs $18.416M YoY; leverage ratio 3.2x (below covenant but higher corporate debt to support working capital) .
- Potential timing risk from federal shutdown and ongoing sale-leaseback accounting assessment (no material Q4 impact anticipated, but acknowledged as a risk) .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Consensus (Q3 2025)
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$500.87	$472.28	$525.99	$518.41*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.33	$0.24	$0.35	$0.276*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$62.19	$56.15	$70.40	$65.72*
Gross Margin (%)	15.4%	15.5%	16.0%	N/A

Significant beats: Revenue ($525.99M vs $518.41M*), EPS ($0.35 vs $0.276*), adj. EBITDA ($70.4M vs $65.7M*).
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment revenue and adj. EBITDA (YoY comparison):

Segment	Q3 2024 Revenue ($USD Thousands)	Q3 2025 Revenue ($USD Thousands)	Q3 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($USD Thousands)	Q3 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($USD Thousands)
Projects	$385,377	$409,952	$20,641	$24,480
Energy Assets	$59,130	$62,537	$33,334	$41,124
O&M	$28,425	$30,770	$5,086	$2,628
Other	$27,941	$22,728	$3,133	$2,168
Total	$500,873	$525,987	$62,194	$70,400

KPIs and visibility (trend across 2025):

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Total Project Backlog ($USD Millions)	$4,904	$5,104	$5,141
Contracted Project Backlog ($USD Millions)	$2,596	$2,415	$2,473
12-month Contracted Backlog ($USD Millions)	$1,118	$1,219	$1,249
O&M Revenue Backlog ($USD Millions)	$1,372	$1,346	$1,476
Energy Assets in Operation (MWe)	742	749	765
Net Assets in Development (MWe)	618	615	626
Total Revenue Visibility ($USD Millions)	$9,610	$9,767	$10,165
New Contracts ($USD Millions)	$333.7	$177.1	$467.0
New Awards ($USD Millions)	$367.3	$558.1	$447.0

Balance sheet and cash generation:

Metric	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Unrestricted Cash ($USD Millions)	$81.6	$94.6
Total Corporate Debt ($USD Millions)	$294.1	$300.2
Corporate Leverage Ratio (Debt/EBITDA)	3.4x	3.2x
Energy Asset Debt ($USD Millions)	$1,502.6	$1,551.5
Energy Asset Book Value ($USD Millions)	$2,041.3	$2,117.5
Adjusted Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)	$49.6	$64.3

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue ($USD Billions)	FY 2025	$1.85–$1.95	$1.85–$1.95	Maintained
Gross Margin (%)	FY 2025	15.5–16.0	15.5–16.0	Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$225–$245	$225–$245	Maintained
D&A ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$103–$105	$103–$105	Maintained
Interest & Other ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$85–$90	$85–$90	Maintained
Effective Tax Rate (%)	FY 2025	(50) to (35)	(50) to (35)	Maintained
Income to NCI ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$(5)–$(8)	$(5)–$(8)	Maintained
Non-GAAP EPS ($)	FY 2025	$0.70–$0.90	$0.70–$0.90	Maintained

Management reiterated risk of potential accounting change related to sale-leasebacks still under assessment .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025 and Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
AI/data center energy infrastructure	Q1: growing federal resiliency focus; tariffs managed; backlog conversion strong . Q2: utility-scale organization, energy infrastructure nearly half backlog; European growth .	Finalizing large AI-optimized Lemoore project; up to 350MW over time; mix of firm gen, solar, battery; equity partner likely; margin within corporate average .	Accelerating opportunity pipeline
Industrial resiliency (BESS)	Q1/Q2: battery supply chain diversification; safe harbor efforts; rising storage mix .	50MW/200MWh Nucor BESS in operation; behind-the-meter resilience; 25MW solar addition planned .	Executing and scaling
Federal government cadence	Q1: previously delayed/cancelled unpaused; normalized cadence expected . Q2: business cadence returning to normal; OBBB Act not material near-term .	Shutdown contingency plans; minimal Q4 impact expected; federal ~20% of business; diversification limits risk .	Stable to improving
Europe JV and international	Q1/Q2: Europe strength driving projects revenue .	CFO: continued contribution from JV CINEL supporting project margins .	Sustained positive
Tariffs/battery supply chain	Q1: mitigated via pre-purchased equipment; repricing beyond 2025 . Q2: safe harbor construction and diversification .	Expect natural hedge from battery cost declines vs tariff impacts .	Manageable headwind
Long-term targets (10% rev / 20% EBITDA growth)	Q1/Q2: reiterated .	Reaffirmed long-term cadence across cycle; data center tailwinds to support trajectory .	Reaffirmed

Management Commentary

CEO (prepared): “Adjusted EBITDA growth outpaced revenue growth… Demand for our energy infrastructure solutions remained robust… we see our unique ability to offer flexible financial options to our customers as a strong selling point.”
CFO: “Projects revenue grew 6%, supported by strong results from our European joint venture… contracted project backlog up 33% to $2.5 billion.”
President, Federal & Utility Infrastructure: “Lemoore… tailored for AI-driven, high-density computing… combine firm energy via fuel cells, solar, and battery storage… up to 350 MW” .
CIO: “The increase was about 35 MW… total opportunity could be as large as 350… we’ll bring in an equity partner… CapEx in line with battery and solar per MW.” .

Q&A Highlights

Data center pipeline and financing: Equity partner likely for Lemoore due to scale; Ameresco expects margins consistent with corporate averages; mix of asset and project .
Operational capacity: Dedicated utility-scale unit, staff reallocation from federal side, Bright Canyon capabilities, and new nuclear partnerships bolster execution capacity .
Batteries and tariffs: Diversifying supply, safe-harboring projects; anticipate natural hedge as battery costs decline even with potential tariff impacts .
Federal shutdown impact: Minimal expected on Q4; federal ~20% of mix; diversified backlog reduces risk .
Nuclear direction: Partnerships (microreactor vs SMR) viewed as real opportunity but likely beyond 2027 for material orders .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 vs Wall Street (S&P Global consensus): revenue $525.99M vs $518.41M*, EPS $0.35 vs $0.276*, adj. EBITDA $70.4M vs $65.7M*; all beats with gross margin expansion to 16.0% .
Number of estimates: revenue (11), EPS (9) for Q3; target price consensus mean $41.89 (9 estimates)*.
Forward quarter (Q4 2025) consensus: revenue $556.65M*, EPS $0.355*, adj. EBITDA $70.96M*; management reiterated FY ranges consistent with these trajectories .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Quality beat with expanding margins: projects and energy assets drove adj. EBITDA leverage; this supports the 20% EBITDA growth long-term narrative .
Visibility remains a differentiator: $5.14B project backlog, $1.48B O&M revenue backlog, $10.17B total revenue visibility—reducing execution risk across 2025–2026 .
Structural AI/data-center catalyst: Lemoore underscores Ameresco’s ability to deliver speed-to-power, behind-the-meter firm generation and storage solutions for hyperscalers—expect pipeline updates to be stock-moving .
Industrial resiliency market momentum: Nucor BESS operational; additional onsite solar planned—Ameresco’s model benefits from both project and asset returns .
Balanced funding and leverage: non-recourse project debt and partner capital fund asset growth; corporate leverage at 3.2x below covenant with improving adjusted cash generation .
Watch risks but trajectory intact: federal shutdown timing, sale-leaseback accounting change, and tariff/battery dynamics acknowledged and managed—guidance maintained .
Near-term setup: consensus for Q4 appears achievable given execution cadence and backlog; strong beats in Q3 can drive estimate revisions and positive sentiment if data center milestones advance* .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Citations: Press release and 8-K details ; Prior quarters Q1/Q2 ; Q3 2024 comps ; Call transcript ; Nucor BESS ; Lemoore data center .

Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary